Oscar Breakdown: Cinematography, Screenplay, and Director

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Greig Fraser, Dune; Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley; Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog; Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story

Right off the bat I have to say, this is a stacked category.  And it’s full of stuff that the Academy loves— a massive, dystopian epic; a provocative noir; a chamber piece both sweeping and oppressive; a black and white film with Shakespearean composition; an impeccably shot musical with boundless energy.  I can’t say I envy the voting body for this category.  My personal favorite to win is Ari Wegner for her work on The Power of the Dog.  Wegner has had one hell of a year given her work on Zola and Dog, becoming only the second female-identifying nominee in this category’s nearly one hundred year history for her work on the later (not-so-fun-fact: the Best Cinematography category was the last homogenized category— as it pertains to gender— until Rachel Morrison broke the glass ceiling with her nomination for Mudbound, 2017).  Her work on Dog, like I mentioned, was both sweeping and oppressive, giving us the feeling that even though the characters inhabited the vast American midwest, there was always someone lingering just out of frame.  It’s difficult to make a movie of this scale feel so claustrophobic but she managed to achieve that with her lens (this effect was also aided by Jonny Greenwood’s incredibly effective score).  It would be silly to count out a black and white film (The Tragedy of Macbeth) from this category as the Academy just awarded Erik Messerschmidt for his black and white photography on last year’s Mank, but I think Wegner’s biggest competition is in Greig Fraser who shot the years most technically lauded film, Dune.  Dune is GIGANTIC.  So gigantic it almost feels cold and clinical but the cinematography is absolutely something to ogle at.  Shooting a movie of that size will surely have the Academy members drooling from both sides of their mouths.

Should Win: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Greig Fraser, Dune

Will Win: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

Should’ve Been Nominated: Alice Brooks, In the Heights; Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch, Andrew Droz Palermo, The Green Knight

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Adam McKay & David Sirota, Don’t Look Up; Zach Baylin, King Richard; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt, The Worst Person in the World

This is a mixed bag.  Early on in the year, it seemed the Kenneth Branagh had director, picture, and screenplay on lock.  Now, however, I don’t think that’s the case.  Belfast definitely has it’s best chance at a win in this category but I don’t think the movie shined as brightly as everyone thought it would (Belfast is a classic example of how pop culture writers and critics hear about an upcoming project— deeply personal film, told through the eyes of a child, shot in black in white— and immediately decide it will be an Oscar winner due to the boxes it checks off.  This one however, didn’t seem to have the punch most thought it would).  Don’t Look Up has a super funny screenplay that I actually loved despite everyone in my life telling me it relied on low hanging fruit (newsflash: every single person it was parodying in American culture also relies on low hanging fruit) so I wouldn’t be mad if it won here.  I think Adam McKay is a singular genius and am willing to die on that hill, don’t care if it means I have to get my clown makeup out!  King Richard has the most heavy handed screenplay of the year.  Richard constantly telling his daughters that they will be the greatest there has ever been would be more compelling if we didn’t already know that they become the greatest there’s ever been.  Foreshadowing like that doesn’t really hit as hard when it’s a story we all know the ending of.  I wish I could be more excited for Paul Thomas Anderson when he inevitably wins this award because I really do love him and find Licorice Pizza to be mostly sensational, however, if we’re talking screenplays, the Asian jokes are unforgivable and unnecessary.  They don’t add to the world building in any significant way and don’t add to the necessary critique of racism and those who .  We’re supposed to cringe at the man who’s delivering the lines, instead we find ourselves cringing at PTA for including them.  And lastly, the best original screenplay of the year, The Worst Person in the World.  If there is any justice, this incredibly special script about the fear of becoming a supporting player in your own life will walk away with the gold.  And you know what?  It’s not completely out of the ordinary given the late-in-the-game love this film has found itself receiving.  Dark horse?  I think maybe!

Should Win: Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt, The Worst Person in the World

Could Win: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Should’ve Been Nominated: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero;  Fran Kranz, Mass; Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Sian Heder, CODA; Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car; Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, & Denis Villeneuve, Dune; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Suddenly, as if I’ve slipped into the twilight zone, CODA is leading the adapted screenplay conversation.  Not to be an absolute asshole but I’m sorry what?  CODA is not even close to the best screenplay among these nominees.  Drive My Car is one of the best, most poetic screenplays I’ve ever heard uttered in my life, fusing Chekhov with modern dialogue so beautifully that it is actually painful.  The Lost Daughter is a prickly, challenging script about a mother who doesn’t particularly care to be one for many years of her life, an ambitious thing to pull off in a society hellbent on uplifting motherhood as all butterflies and rainbows and the best thing to ever happen to any women ever.  The Power of the Dog is a thrilling examination of what happens when toxic masculinity spirals out of control.  And Dune is, well, the only nominee worse than CODA.  To nominate Dune for its script?  I have to scratch my head.  A writers delight it is not!  CODA is lovely and heart warming and provides a lot necessary representation in a cultural landscape often turning a blind eye to those with accessibility needs.  But I cannot wrap my head around all the love it is getting for it’s pretty run of the mill screenplay.  And listen, if you know anything about me, you KNOW I love a good coming-of-age screenplay (Juno is my favorite movie of all time, hello).  But I just can’t get on board with this one (though it might be the safest bet to check off on your ballot if you’re trying to win, and not just trying to choose chaos like I am).  Drive My Car for the win!

Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

Could Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Should’ve Been Nominated: Tony Kushner, West Side Story; Steven Levenson, Tick, Tick… Boom!

Best Director

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Jane Campion is going to win.  Not going to waste anyone’s time here.  Nothing is a lock anymore but this is about as close to a lock as we get.  Cheers to two women winning Best Director in a row!

Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Should’ve Been Nominated: Julia Ducournau, Titane; Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers; Jon M. Chu, In the Heights