Oscar Breakdown: Supporting Performances

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Ciarán Hinds, Belfast; Tory Kotsur, CODA; Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog; J. K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos; Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

(Images: Hinds, David Edwards; Kotsur, NPR; Plemons, USA Today; Simmons, Flickr; Smit-McPhee, LA Times)

Okay so here’s the thing: this is probably the year’s only true acting lock so we don’t need to analyze this category too, too much. I don’t see anyone outpacing Kodi Smit-McPhee, the New Zealand native who’s been collecting critics trophies left and right (critics prizes truly mean nothing in Oscar prediction world but these wins certainly aren’t hurting him, especially as someone who had a pretty low profile going into prestige movie season). His biggest competition can be found in either Troy Kotsur, the Deaf-actor who’s being particularly singled out from the warm, talented cast of CODA, and Ciarán Hinds, an industry vet with a sentimental, wise old man part in Belfast, the type of thing the Academy loves to recognize (could get a legacy award despite never being nominated before). It doesn’t seem like Smit-McPhee’s co-star in The Power of the Dog, Jesse Plemons, has any path to victory and J.K. Simmons surely doesn’t either, I’m sure they’re both just happy to be there (Plemons is incredibly talented and should’ve been nominated for past work like The Master or I’m Thinking of Ending Things and J.K. Simmons is phoning it in hard in Being the Ricardos after previously winning one of the most well-deserved Oscars of all time for his role in Whiplash). I talked about how freakishly good Smit-McPhee is as Peter Morgan in my review of The Power of the Dog, but let me reiterate: this is not a performance you will forget— it is the definition of mesmerizing. My vote has been for Kodi Smit-McPhee since I walked out of the Paris Theater during The Power of the Dog’s theatrical run. It is my personal favorite performance by an actor this year, I truly can’t stop talking about it. If you’re trying to beat your friends this year in the annual Oscar-pool, I think you’ll secure a surefire point by checking off Kodi’s name this March.

Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee; Peter Morgan, The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Ciarán Hinds; Pop, Belfast

Will Win: Kodi Smith-McPhee; Peter Morgan, The Power of the Dog

Should’ve Been Nominated: Jamie Dornan, Belfast; Masaki Okada, Drive My Car; Colman Domingo, Zola; Jason Isaacs, Mass

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

(Images: Buckley, EW; DeBose, NYT; Dench, The Guardian; Dunst, NYT; Ellis, NYT)

Now this category? She’s keeping me on my toes. The fervent Oscar lovers, discussers, and predictors out there have been arguing about this one for the past month. Who will walk away with the Support Actress trophy? Hollywood mainstay Kirsten Dunst for her devastating, unraveling performance in The Power of the Dog or fiery silver-screen newcomer, Ariana DeBose, for her reinvention of Anita in Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story? For me? My money’s still on Kirsten Dunst despite the roar of buzz for DeBose. Dunst has been churning out effortless performances for years, constantly doing “career best work” (her work as Rose may actually be her best yet). She’s created iconic, beloved roles (Torrance in Bring it On and of course MJ in Spider-man) and brought us cult classic characters that people refuse to stop talking about (the titular character in Sofia Coppola’s Marie Antoinette and Mary in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) so I think it’s high time the Academy recognizes her in a big way. That being said, Ariana DeBose is definitely a star in the making and may be West Side Story’s only victory (which is crazy because it’s filmmaking perfection). Aside from the two of them, Judy Dench, too, should just be happy to be there (she is a legend but the Academy recognizing her over her co-star Caitríona Balfe feels…insane) as she doesn’t seem to have much buzz at all. Aunjanue Ellis gets a real meaty moment in King Richard (read: the best scene in the movie) but is largely absent from the rest of the film which is certainly hurting her chances. Though career momentum could certainly help her snag a win (since 2019, she’s been nominated for two Emmys, two SAG awards, a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, and an Oscar). And then there’s Jessie Buckley who’s name I was THRILLED to hear read first on nomination morning. Buckley is my favorite part of The Lost Daughter and has been doing amazing work onscreen for the past couple years. I’m thrilled that this will boost her profile in a massive way and I really hope people learn this name because soon it’ll be known in every household. I’m not sure she possess any chance of winning this year, but if by some miracle she does win, I would not be upset in the slightest; she is beyond captivating.