I have been dreading writing this installment because I finally have to commit to my answer for who will win the Best Actress trophy. A category I’ve famously fought with myself about in the past. All of these women have won some sort of major precursor award (Davis won the SAG Award, Day the Golden Globe, Kirby the Volpi Cup, McDormand the BAFTA, and Mulligan the Critics Choice Award) which makes it THAT MUCH HARDER to commit to who I’ll be voting for on my ballot. It really is so, so up in the air. But let me attempt to talk this out. Let’s dig in.
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
If you’ve read any of my other work, you know I absolutely ride hard for Viola Davis. She is a truly a once in a generation talent and has shattered records left and right (just this year she became the most Oscar-nominated Black actress, having four acting nominations under her belt) during her meteoric rise to household name. Yet with this nomination, I do unfortunately think she kicks off a list of exceptional female performances in just okay movies. Though I didn’t love Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (we’ll get more into why in a later post, wink wink) I did love her performance as the titular blue’s singer.
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Viola Davis has this incredibly powerful air about her that casts her presence across an entire film, no matter whether she’s actually in the present scene. By this I mean you just feel her, even though you may not see her. You can equate this to say Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs or Marlon Brando in The Godfather: their aura is so prevalent, so omnipotent, that the whole watching experience just drips with the knowledge, the promise, that they’re there. Viola has industry respect and admiration behind her, plus the gravitas of this timeless performance, but will the fact that she didn’t do her own singing in a movie that didn’t snag a Best Picture nomination hurt her? She’s my second choice, but she very well could emerge victorious.
Andra Day, Billie Holiday, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Speaking of folks doing their own singing! Conversely, to screen legend Viola Davis, a cinematic newcomer but music mainstay, Andra Day did in fact do her own singing. But in alignment with Davis, Day is also giving a shattering performance in a less-than-amazing film. The scenes of Lee Daniels’ film may be strewn haphazardly onto the screen making for a strange tone and rushed narrative, but Andra Day’s performance as Billie Holiday is as sharp and well-crafted as the diamonds she dons as Lady Day.
Billie Holiday’s life story is as tragic as it is triumphant, and Day is able to examine all the craters and hilltops with dynamic assurance, never stumbling when the surrounding film seems to. She really was born to play this part as she disappears into Ms. Holiday with both voice and demeanor, giving what I would consider the best musical biopic performance since Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose (which coincidentally is another uneven film with a titanic central performance). I’m not sure that this will be the year for Ms. Day, but then again her upset at the Globes could prove otherwise. One thing is for certain though: Andra Day’s creative talent is seemingly limitless. I can’t wait to see what she does next.
Vanessa Kirby, Martha Weiss, Pieces of a Woman
Look, Vanessa Kirby is going to be a massive star. I truly believe she is proving to be one of the most formidable actresses working today. Normally I’m left feeling isolated or intimated by someone possessing such statuesque, otherworldly beauty, but Kirby is miraculously inviting and hypnotizing. I always feel welcomed by her as opposed to shutting out, which is a special skill to possess when you’re that untouchably beautiful. She’s been a deeply respected fixture in the London theater scene for some time now and it’s so thrilling to watch her blow up on an international scale.
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On-trend with her previously mentioned co-nominees, she too is stuck doing electric work a lackluster movie. But my god is she towering in this film. The 20-plus minute one-take tracking shot that kicks off the movie is truly some of the most anxiety-inducing, painfully visceral, technically impressive filmmaking of the year, and is largely anchored by Kirby’s sweat-laden bravura. If only the rest of the film could either keep up with her or the bar it set from the jump. But like her fellow nominees, it is a testament to her skill and screen presence and vulnerability that she can elevate uneven material with such emotional effect.
Frances McDormand, Fern, Nomadland
Breaking the trend of giving a beautiful performance in an average movie is Frances McDormand in Nomadland who’s giving a quietly impactful performance in a quietly impactful film. McDormand is so much more grounded and subdued in this film than we often see her. The genius of this performance isn’t the hyper-specific, quirky demeanor or the unhinged vengeance associated with her other Oscar-winning characters (Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), it’s the listening, the processing, the acceptance.
Watching McDormand’s Fern flow through a river she never meant to end up in without ever fighting the current is truly so beautiful. She helps us understand what is important in this fleeting existence, what legacies live on and how, and how all of that butts up against the current state of capitalism in the US. I’m not sure the Academy will be jumping at the idea of awarding McDormand another acting trophy as I’m sure she’ll get a different one when Nomadland wins its inevitable Best Picture prize (she served as a producer) so I definitely think that hurts her chances here. However, I certainly wouldn’t count her out for making the expansive American west feel a little less cosmic and a little more like home.
Carey Mulligan, Cassandra Thomas, Promising Young Woman
For some reason, I have a sneaking suspicion that Carey Mulligan will soon have an Oscar with her name on in sitting upon her shelf. In the much discussed and feverishly debated Promising Young Women, Mulligan is giving the exact type of performance the Academy loves to award. Brazen, audacious, larger-than-life, a performance that makes even suburban dads go “that lead girl was really good, huh?” As a med school dropout hellbent on avenging her friend post-sexual assault, Mulligan powers through Emerald Fennell’s hyper-stylized and harshly critical debut feature with unflinching forward drive.
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However you feel about this film and it’s polarizing, controversial final act, it’s undeniable that Carey Mulligan is doing exceptional, bombastic work here. Many consider Mulligan to be the dark horse this season while an equal number thinking the award is hers to lose. In an attempt to be decisive, I’m going to talk out my thinking right here and now. I think the Academy will be eager to award a previous nominee who hasn’t won yet. I think they like to award flashy roles more so than subtle ones. And I think the Academy will want to throw Promising Young Woman some love should Academy darling Aaron Sorkin beat out Fennell in the Original Screenplay category. I don’t know, friends…. This category is so up in the air and relies so much on so many things (voting body, politics, campaigning, etc). I’m personally rooting for Mulligan as a lover of her work for years so that’s who I’m going to stick with, even though I might regret it come Oscar night when Viola Davis wins her second Oscar. WE’LL SEE.
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win: LITERALLY ANY OF THEM!!! HELP! (Viola Davis)
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Should’ve Been Nominated: Carrie Coon, The Nest, or Han Ye-ri, Minari, or Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man, or Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman (it was a good year for women)
